The lifecycle of a slot game

Casino game suppliers typically have a large portfolio of games available to gambling operators. Speak to enough suppliers and it becomes evident that the majority of their revenue is derived from just a select few games in their portfolio. Some games are successful, but the majority of slot titles disappear quite soon after their launch. In this article we look more closely at how games “stick” and become one of the few “hero” games that stand the test of time.

Typical game churn

We provide the data for the EGR top 20 slots rankings every month and in these monthly rankings we analyse the top 10 games on over 50 UK sites each day. We then aggregate the results to derive the overall rankings for the top games. We noticed that many games from the previous month’s rankings would typically disappear as new games enter the charts. The chart below looks at the top 20 slots since November 2016. We divided the games into three categories; games that appeared in the charts 3 times or less (this is the group that disappears quickly from the charts), games that appear in the charts 4-6 times and those that have appeared in the charts 6 times or more (the all-time ‘hero’ games).

Interestingly the second group is comparatively small. The top 20 each month mainly comprises of well-established games or new games that disappear quickly.

Games that quickly churn

We looked into how these games dropped over time and found that when you aggregate the analysis of over 100s of casino sites, a typical churn pattern would emerge over time. Typically, a game is launched, it peaks in the second week and after 4-5 weeks it begins to drop quickly in position.

Chart 2 below shows four typical new game releases that were launched in October/November. The chart illustrates the games’ presence in the top 10 locations of casino pages each week, using 50 casino sites that are monitored in the EGR rankings.

In the graph above, you can clearly see a pattern of how the content share peaks in week two and then decreases 4-5 weeks after its release.

Chart 3 shows the average churn of the games. You can clearly see the decline in content share. We have found that this lifetime is typical for the majority of game releases.

Most Playtech content is ring-fenced on its own exclusive pages. Though with some of their new game releases, plus the acquisition of Quickspin, Eyecon, this is gradually changing. The churn is more gradual as there is less competition, but it still exists. Without competition the churn is a good indicator that the quality of the game still dictates longevity.

The top ‘hero’ games

We noticed another consistent theme within the EGR rankings. There are a number of games which consistently appear, despite being launched years ago.

Chart 4 shows the eight top-ranking games of the 12 months to July 2018. Four games were in the charts every single month.

It is obvious by looking at the content share of these games that they contribute a large share of revenue to the suppliers. Suppliers hope that each new game launch will result in similar success.

Can we predict which new games will stick?

If the ‘aggregated days’ of a game does not decrease after six weeks then it’s a fair chance that the game will stick and become successful. Chart 5 is the same as Chart 3 but looks at the top eight ‘Hero’ games over the year. As you can see the content share (and by assumption, revenue) is pretty consistent. Only a select few new games releases will stick.